The Seemingly Permanent Duopoly
When the US constitution was ratified in 1788 there were no political parties, though two quickly formed: Federalist and Democratic-Republican. Since then, there have always been two major parties in American politics. Since the Civil War, Republicans and Democrats have exclusively dominated the political landscape.
It is unfortunate that our system of single-member districts and plurality voting seems to naturally lead to a two-party duopoly (Duverger’s Law). First-past-the-post plurality systems with single member districts provide no reward for second place. Consequently, minor party and independent candidates are discouraged from running, and citizens are discouraged from “wasting” their votes.
Additionally, direct primaries permit competition within the major parties, further reducing the incentive for those with new ideas to form new parties. Regional parties rarely arise because of the nature of the US presidential election system that distributes electors in most states on a winner-take-all basis. These structural features essentially guarantee the persistence of the two-party system.
Though public dissatisfaction with US electoral politics is at an all-time high, the two-party duopoly seemingly remains firmly in-place. That said, though, we may be at the beginning of a significant realignment of American politics. Before contemplating how that realignment will be manifested and before suggesting solutions or calls to action, it’s probably useful to consider how we got from there to here.
Below is a summary of the Wikipedia posting on Political Parties in the United States.
First Party System
The first US parties were Federalist and Democratic-Republican (AKA Anti-Federalist), with the First Party system lasting from 1792 to 1824. The big issues during this period were the replacement of the Articles of Confederation with the US Constitution and — after the Constitution’s adoption — how strong should the central national government be.
Federalists favored a strong central government. The Democratic-Republicans opposed the Federalist’s agenda (led by Hamilton). Federalists were dominant in the Northeast, favoring policies that benefited business.
Democratic-Republicans dominated US politics during this period. Not counting George Washington, only one of eight Presidential terms was served by a Federalist. Early US voters clearly preferred a weak central government.
Second Party System
In 1829 the Democratic-Republican Party split into the modern Democratic Party (led by Andrew Jackson) and the Whigs. The Federalist Party by this time had all but disappeared. Democrats favored a strong executive branch of government, while the Whigs argued for a strong Congress.
During this period, Democrats dominated, occupying all but two of seven Presidential terms.
Third Party System
Perhaps the most fluid period for political parties was during the runup and aftermath of the Civil War. The Republican Party replaced the Whigs based on their anti-slavery stance, while supporting centralist economic policies. Many other smaller parties, such as the Free-Soil Party, were absorbed into the emerging Republican Party. Slavery was a major defining issue during this period.
Following the Civil War, Republicans dominated US politics. Considering the outcome of the war, this is not surprising. During this period, newly freed African Americans voted Republican while white Southerners joined the Democratic Party. Democrats were only elected to three of ten Presidential terms from 1857 to 1896 (all single terms).
Fourth Party System
From roughly 1896 to 1932, the two political parties were largely unchanged. This period was dominated by Republicans. The only Democrat elected President (two of nine terms) was Woodrow Wilson in the face of a third-party challenge by Teddy Roosevelt.
Fifth Party System
The Great Depression brought the Democratic Party to power with the New Deal coalition that produced seven out of eight Presidents during the period from 1933 to 1968. Only two of nine terms were served by a Republican (Eisenhower).
Sixth Party System
The Sixth Party System, which began in 1969 with the Nixon presidency, may be drawing to a close with the presidency of Donald Trump. Republican voters have become dominant in the South, rural areas, and suburbs. Democrats rely on a coalition of African Americans, Hispanics and white urban progressives. The Trump presidency effectively cemented these alliances in place.
During this period, eight presidential terms were under Republican Presidents, five under Democrats. Unlike other Party Systems, this period was not dominated by either major party. There was only one time when a party held the presidency for longer than two terms (two-term Ronald Reagan followed by single-term George H.W. Bush).
Matthew Dowd, in his book A New Way: Embracing the Paradox as We Lead and Serve, argues that we may be in a time of disruptive politics, akin to the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and the Great Depression. These were times of major shifts in the two major parties. The election of Trump and the near nomination of Sanders (twice) are strong evidence that he may be correct.
We are perhaps as culturally diverse a country as we’ve ever been. We can only hope that shifts in the political landscape will free us from the Sixth Party period of polarized tribal two-party politics. Perhaps our Seventh Party System will be one that embraces political diversity, recognizing how intense debate followed by compromise, reconciliation, and acceptance creates the harmonious nation and communities in which we all aspire to live.
